· Analysis updated 10:05 UTC
Tatran Bohunice vs Ždírec nad Doubravou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for Tatran Bohunice and 1.02 for Ždírec nad Doubravou, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Tatran Bohunice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tatran Bohunice win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
2.68 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tatran Bohunice home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ždírec nad Doubravou away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–18.1%
- 3–07.9%
- 1–16.8%
Recent form
Tatran Bohunice
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Brno · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bystrc Kníničky · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Kuřim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedrichov · 4-0 (W)
Ždírec nad Doubravou
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Brno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bystrc Kníničky · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Kuřim · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bedrichov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Velké Meziříčí · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T08:15:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 1-1 Ždírec nad Doubravou (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 0-2 Ždírec nad Doubravou (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2025-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 2-0 Ždírec nad Doubravou (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2025-05-24T08:15:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 2-1 Ždírec nad Doubravou (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2024-10-20T12:30:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 1-1 Ždírec nad Doubravou (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2023-05-13T14:30:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 1-0 Ždírec nad Doubravou (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2022-10-01T08:15:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 1-1 Ždírec nad Doubravou (4. liga - Divizie D)
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | FS Třebíč | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 7 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 8 | Sokol Tasovice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Humpolec | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 13 | Chotebor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 15 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tatran Bohunice win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.