· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Tatran Prešov vs Humenné Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Tatran Prešov and 0.79 for Humenné, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Tatran Prešov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tatran Prešov win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tatran Prešov home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Humenné away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tatran Prešov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Tatran Prešov and 0.79 for Humenné, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Tatran Prešov
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Čadca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Bratislava II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Šamorín · 0-1 (L)
Humenné
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petržalka | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Pohronie | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Žilina II | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Inter Bratislava | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 7 | Galanta | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Tatran Prešov | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 12 | Zlaté Moravce | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Malženice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | MFK Bytča | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 9 |
| 15 | Humenné | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tatran Prešov win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.