· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Tau Altopascio vs Progresso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for Tau Altopascio and 1.00 for Progresso, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Tau Altopascio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tau Altopascio win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.29 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tau Altopascio home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Progresso away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tau Altopascio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.29 goals for Tau Altopascio and 1.00 for Progresso, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.5%
Recent form
Tau Altopascio
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grassina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rondinella · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ternana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Robur Siena · 3-2 (W)
Progresso
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Seravezza · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucchese · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scandicci · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tau Altopascio · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · Tau Altopascio 2-1 Progresso (Serie D - Girone E)
- 2025-03-23T13:30:00.000Z · Tau Altopascio 1-1 Progresso (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2024-11-10T13:30:00.000Z · Tau Altopascio 0-1 Progresso (Serie D - Girone D)
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Lucchese | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Seravezza | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Scandicci | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Flaminia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Ternana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Terranuova Traiana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Mezzolara | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Rondinella | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Montevarchi Calcio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Grassina | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Progresso | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tau Altopascio win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.