· Analysis updated 08:48 UTC
Tau Altopascio vs Terranuova Traiana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Tau Altopascio and 1.90 for Terranuova Traiana, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Tau Altopascio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.9% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tau Altopascio home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Terranuova Traiana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tau Altopascio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 21% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Tau Altopascio and 1.90 for Terranuova Traiana, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.2%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Tau Altopascio
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Donato Tavarnelle · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grassina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rondinella · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ternana · 0-3 (L)
Terranuova Traiana
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prato · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Seravezza · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flaminia · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Donato Tavarnelle · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · Tau Altopascio 3-2 Terranuova Traiana (Serie D - Girone E)
- 2025-12-14T13:30:00.000Z · Tau Altopascio 0-1 Terranuova Traiana (Serie D - Girone E)
- 2023-02-19T13:30:00.000Z · Tau Altopascio 0-0 Terranuova Traiana (Serie D - Girone E)
- 2022-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Tau Altopascio 1-3 Terranuova Traiana (Serie D - Girone E)
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Seravezza | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 4 | Lucchese | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Ternana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Terranuova Traiana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Flaminia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Montevarchi Calcio | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Mezzolara | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Rondinella | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Grassina | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Progresso | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.