Taubaté vs Monte Azul Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Taubaté and 1.28 for Monte Azul, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Taubaté the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Taubaté win

50.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.84 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Taubaté home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Taubaté to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Taubaté and 1.28 for Monte Azul, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Taubaté win50%

Draw23%

Monte Azul win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.6%
1–08.1%
2–07.4%
1–26.7%

Recent form

Taubaté

2026-03-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grêmio Prudente · 1-1 (D)
2026-02-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sao Bento · 3-2 (W)
2026-02-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs XV de Piracicaba · 1-1 (D)
2026-02-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Água Santa · 3-2 (W)
2026-02-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santo André · 1-1 (D)

Monte Azul

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Paulista - A2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Água Santa	15	10	1	4	10	31
2	Ferroviária	15	8	4	3	10	28
3	Ituano	15	8	4	3	8	28
4	São José EC	15	8	3	4	8	27
5	Sertãozinho	15	7	4	4	0	25
6	Votuporanguense	15	7	3	5	-1	24
7	Juventus	15	6	5	4	2	23
8	XV de Piracicaba	15	6	4	5	1	22
9	Oeste	15	5	7	3	4	22
10	Santo André	15	5	3	7	-6	18
11	Taubaté	15	3	8	4	-1	17
12	Inter De Limeira	15	4	4	7	-3	16
13	Linense	15	2	7	6	-6	13
14	Monte Azul	15	2	6	7	-5	12
15	Grêmio Prudente	15	1	9	5	-4	12
16	Sao Bento	15	1	2	12	-17	5
1	Ferroviária	6	4	0	2	4	12
2	Juventus	6	4	0	2	3	12
3	São José EC	6	3	0	3	2	9
4	Sertãozinho	6	1	0	5	-9	3
1	Votuporanguense	6	4	1	1	8	13
2	Ituano	6	3	1	2	-1	10
3	XV de Piracicaba	6	2	2	2	2	8
4	Água Santa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Taubaté win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.