Tauras vs Be1 NFA Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Tauras and 1.73 for Be1 NFA, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Be1 NFA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tauras home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Be1 NFA away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tauras win33%

Draw23%

Be1 NFA win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–29.0%
2–17.6%
0–17.2%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Tauras

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jonava · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Žalgiris II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Atmosfera · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Babrungas · 1-1 (D)

Be1 NFA

2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Transinvest 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FA Šiauliai II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ekranas · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Garliava · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-12T15:30:00.000Z · Tauras 0-1 Be1 NFA (1 Lyga)
2025-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Tauras 2-0 Be1 NFA (1 Lyga)
2025-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · Tauras 1-0 Be1 NFA (1 Lyga)
2025-02-15T18:00:00.000Z · Tauras 1-0 Be1 NFA (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-11-02T11:00:00.000Z · Tauras 0-1 Be1 NFA (1 Lyga)
2024-06-14T15:30:00.000Z · Tauras 1-2 Be1 NFA (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	26	22	1	3	54	67
2	Babrungas	27	21	4	2	35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	17	3	6	20	54
4	Žalgiris II	27	14	4	9	6	46
5	Tauras	26	13	5	8	12	44
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	14	2	11	0	44
8	BFA	27	13	4	10	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	5	34
10	Jonava	27	8	6	13	-4	30
11	Garliava	27	8	5	14	-1	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	27	4	3	20	-35	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.