Estadio Rommel Fernandez · Analysis updated 01:10 UTC
Tauro FC vs Deportivo Universitario Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Tauro FC and 0.94 for Deportivo Universitario, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Tauro FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tauro FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Universitario away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–112.1%
- 2–07.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 59.1% vs market 49.3%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.3% | 59.1% | 1.69 | +9.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.4% | 60.7% | 1.65 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 69.3% | 69.5% | 1.44 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 39.2% | 39.3% | 2.54 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 30.4% | 30.5% | 3.28 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.4% | 30.2% | 3.31 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.3% | 69.8% | 1.43 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 40.9% | 2.44 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tauro FC
- 2026-10-03T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Veraguas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T01:30:00.000Z · H vs San Francisco FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Herrera · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Universitario · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Cocle · 2-0 (W)
Deportivo Universitario
- 2026-10-24T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T01:30:00.000Z · A vs San Francisco FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Plaza Amador · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T23:15:00.000Z · H vs UMECIT · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Alianza FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T01:30:00.000Z · Tauro FC 1-0 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2026-03-28T01:30:00.000Z · Tauro FC 2-0 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-08-30T01:30:00.000Z · Tauro FC 1-0 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2025-02-26T23:15:00.000Z · Tauro FC 1-2 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2024-09-10T01:30:00.000Z · Tauro FC 4-1 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2024-03-10T01:30:00.000Z · Tauro FC 2-2 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2023-08-26T21:00:00.000Z · Tauro FC 1-1 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2023-02-25T23:15:00.000Z · Tauro FC 1-0 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2022-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · Tauro FC 1-2 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
- 2022-04-02T21:00:00.000Z · Tauro FC 1-0 Deportivo Universitario (Liga Panameña de Fútbol)
Liga Panameña de Fútbol table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Cocle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -24 | 8 |
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | San Francisco FC | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | CD Arabe Unido | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | UMECIT | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Veraguas | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Alianza FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting San Miguelito | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportivo Universitario | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Herrera | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Union Cocle | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.