· Analysis updated 16:47 UTC
Tavistock vs Plymouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Tavistock and 2.41 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Plymouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Plymouth win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 2.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tavistock home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Plymouth away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Plymouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 18% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Tavistock and 2.41 for Plymouth, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–37.7%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Tavistock
- 2026-08-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Willand Rovers · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Hartpury University · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Swindon Supermarine · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portishead Town · 0-7 (L)
Plymouth
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs AFC Wimbledon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leyton Orient · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace U21 · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Plymouth win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.