Garvey Park · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Tavua vs Ba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for Tavua and 2.93 for Ba, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Ba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ba win
80.5% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 2.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tavua home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ba away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 7% / 12% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for Tavua and 2.93 for Ba, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.4%
- 0–310.1%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–47.4%
Recent form
Tavua
- 2025-09-27T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Ba · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasinu · 2-5 (L)
- 2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Navua · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Nadroga · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-07-27T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Lautoka · 0-2 (L)
Ba
- 2025-09-27T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tavua · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-09-13T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Navua · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-29T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Lautoka · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-24T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Labasa · 5-0 (W)
- 2025-07-27T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Rewa · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Football League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ba win, at 80.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.