· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Team Altamura vs SS Monopoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Team Altamura and 1.10 for SS Monopoli, a combined total of 1.89. That distribution gives SS Monopoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.7% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Team Altamura home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SS Monopoli away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.5%
- 0–015.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Team Altamura
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Audace Cerignola · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Scafatese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Picerno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Casertana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bari · 0-3 (L)
SS Monopoli
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Casarano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Crotone · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Scafatese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Foggia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Potenza · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · Team Altamura 1-0 SS Monopoli (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2026-02-06T19:30:00.000Z · Team Altamura 2-0 SS Monopoli (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2025-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · Team Altamura 1-1 SS Monopoli (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2025-02-16T16:30:00.000Z · Team Altamura 1-1 SS Monopoli (Serie C - Girone C)
- 2024-10-05T15:30:00.000Z · Team Altamura 0-1 SS Monopoli (Serie C - Girone C)
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Bari | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Audace Cerignola | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Catania | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Casertana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Cavese | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | SS Monopoli | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | Scafatese | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Salernitana | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Inter U23 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 12 | AZ Picerno | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Foggia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Barletta | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Casarano | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Savoia | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 5 |
| 20 | Crotone | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.