Ecuador · Liga Pro · Matchweek 2700:00

3 – 1

Saturday, 29 August 2026

Estadio Bellavista · Referee J. C. Andrade Arreaga · Analysis updated 10:25 UTC

Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Tecnico Universitario and 0.77 for Deportivo Cuenca, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Tecnico Universitario the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

73.3% probability

High confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tecnico Universitario home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Cuenca away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tecnico Universitario win41%

Draw33%

Deportivo Cuenca win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals54%

Over 2.5 goals27%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

1–017.0%
0–016.5%
1–113.1%
0–112.7%
2–08.8%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 65.5% vs market 54.1%, edge +11.4 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.70	54.1%	65.5%	1.53	+11.4
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.30	71.8%	73.3%	1.36	+1.5
Match result	Home	2.20	40.4%	40.8%	2.45	+0.4
Match result	Draw	2.75	32.3%	32.5%	3.08	+0.2
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.57	59.5%	59.2%	1.69	-0.3
Match result	Away	3.25	27.3%	26.7%	3.75	-0.6
Double chance	Home/Away	1.36	68.7%	67.5%	1.48	-1.2
Both teams to score	Yes	2.00	45.9%	34.5%	2.90	-11.4

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Tecnico Universitario

2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leones del Norte · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs LDU de Quito · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-01T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Delfin SC · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Cuenca · 3-1 (W)

Deportivo Cuenca

2026-10-16T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Tecnico Universitario · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Orense SC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Mushuc Runa SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Libertad · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 3-1 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)
2026-05-02T19:00:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 1-2 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)
2025-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 0-2 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)
2025-05-17T00:00:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 0-2 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)
2024-10-05T18:30:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 1-1 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)
2024-04-18T00:00:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 2-1 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)
2023-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 1-1 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)
2023-04-02T19:00:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 3-0 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)
2022-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 1-0 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)
2022-05-07T00:00:00.000Z · Tecnico Universitario 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21
1	Independiente del Valle	33	25	3	5	40	78
2	Macara	34	19	6	9	12	63
3	Universidad Catolica	34	14	11	9	22	53
4	LDU de Quito	34	15	8	11	8	53
5	Aucas	33	14	9	10	3	51
6	Barcelona SC	32	11	12	9	6	45
7	Libertad	33	14	8	11	7	50
8	Guayaquil City FC	33	11	10	12	-6	43
9	Emelec	33	11	9	13	-9	42
10	Leones del Norte	33	10	10	13	-6	40
11	Deportivo Cuenca	34	12	8	14	-9	44
12	Mushuc Runa SC	33	9	13	11	-4	40
13	Orense SC	34	10	8	16	-8	38
14	Delfin SC	34	9	8	17	-13	35
15	Tecnico Universitario	33	10	3	20	-16	33
16	Manta FC	34	7	6	21	-27	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.