· Analysis updated 08:01 UTC
Tefik Canga vs Rilindja 1974 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Tefik Canga and 1.65 for Rilindja 1974, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Rilindja 1974 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rilindja 1974 win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tefik Canga home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rilindja 1974 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rilindja 1974 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 19% / 24% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Tefik Canga and 1.65 for Rilindja 1974, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Tefik Canga
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina e Re · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Besa Peja · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Suhareka · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilindja 1974 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KF Lepenci · 1-2 (L)
Rilindja 1974
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Suhareka · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vëllaznimi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tefik Canga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Istogu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KF Lepenci · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga E Pare table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liria Prizren | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 26 |
| 2 | Prishtina e Re | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Trepça'89 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Rilindja 1974 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Ferizaj | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | Dinamo Ferizaj | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Suhareka | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | 2 Korriku | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Vëllaznimi | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 17 |
| 10 | Istogu | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 11 | Vjosa | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 12 | FC Besa Peja | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Trepça Mitrovicë | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 11 |
| 14 | Kika | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Ramiz Sadiku | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | KF Lepenci | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 | Mitrovica | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Tefik Canga | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rilindja 1974 win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.