· Analysis updated 19:23 UTC
Tefik Canga vs Suhareka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Tefik Canga and 1.74 for Suhareka, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Suhareka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Suhareka win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tefik Canga home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Suhareka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Suhareka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 24% / 24% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Tefik Canga and 1.74 for Suhareka, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Tefik Canga
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilindja 1974 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KF Lepenci · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kika · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Ferizaj · 0-1 (L)
Suhareka
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kika · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Ferizaj · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mitrovica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ramiz Sadiku · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga E Pare table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina e Re | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Liria Prizren | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 3 | Rilindja 1974 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Trepça'89 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Ferizaj | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Ferizaj | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Vëllaznimi | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 17 |
| 8 | Suhareka | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Istogu | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 10 | 2 Korriku | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Vjosa | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Besa Peja | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Trepça Mitrovicë | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 14 | Ramiz Sadiku | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | KF Lepenci | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kika | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 | Tefik Canga | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Mitrovica | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Suhareka win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.