Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Consadole Sapporo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Tegevajaro Miyazaki and 1.15 for Consadole Sapporo, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tegevajaro Miyazaki win

49.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Consadole Sapporo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Tegevajaro Miyazaki and 1.15 for Consadole Sapporo, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tegevajaro Miyazaki win50%

Draw24%

Consadole Sapporo win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–09.9%
2–19.6%
2–08.3%
0–16.8%

Recent form

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 0-2 (L)

Consadole Sapporo

2026-08-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T05:45:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J2 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	13	8	3	2	11	27
2	Albirex Niigata	13	8	2	3	-2	26
3	Kataller Toyama	13	6	4	3	11	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	6	4	3	9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	5	6	2	7	21
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	13	5	5	3	3	20
7	Oita Trinita	13	4	7	2	7	19
8	Shonan Bellmare	12	4	7	1	2	19
9	Sagan Tosu	13	5	2	6	-1	17
10	Tokushima Vortis	13	5	2	6	-2	17
11	Consadole Sapporo	13	5	2	6	-3	17
12	Iwaki	12	5	1	6	1	16
13	Blaublitz Akita	13	4	4	5	0	16
14	Fujieda MYFC	13	3	6	4	1	15
15	Jubilo Iwata	12	4	3	5	-1	15
16	Vanraure Hachinohe	13	4	2	7	-12	14
17	Montedio Yamagata	13	4	1	8	-2	13
18	Tochigi City	12	3	3	6	-1	12
19	Imabari	13	3	2	8	-11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	13	3	2	8	-17	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tegevajaro Miyazaki win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.