Unilever Stadium Shintomi · Analysis updated 00:35 UTC
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Kataller Toyama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Tegevajaro Miyazaki and 1.26 for Kataller Toyama, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kataller Toyama away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.3%
Recent form
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 0-2 (L)
Kataller Toyama
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Consadole Sapporo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Omiya Ardija · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Shonan Bellmare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventforet Kofu · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1-1 Kataller Toyama (J2 League)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1-2 Kataller Toyama (J-League Cup)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0-1 Kataller Toyama (J2/J3 League)
- 2024-10-12T07:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1-1 Kataller Toyama (J3 League)
- 2024-05-03T05:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1-1 Kataller Toyama (J3 League)
- 2023-11-26T04:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0-6 Kataller Toyama (J3 League)
- 2023-04-09T05:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0-2 Kataller Toyama (J3 League)
- 2022-09-10T09:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1-2 Kataller Toyama (J3 League)
- 2022-06-12T05:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0-1 Kataller Toyama (J3 League)
- 2021-11-21T04:00:00.000Z · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1-2 Kataller Toyama (J3 League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.