Sportpark Schoonenberg · Referee Erwin Blank · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Telstar and 1.01 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Telstar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Telstar win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Telstar home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ADO Den Haag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Telstar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Telstar and 1.01 for ADO Den Haag, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 52.3% vs market 38.0%, edge +14.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.0% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +14.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 27.0% | 3.70 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.5% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 45.6% | 45.6% | 2.19 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.0% | 72.9% | 1.37 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 54.5% | 54.3% | 1.84 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.6% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.0% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -14.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Telstar
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
ADO Den Haag
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Telstar win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.