BUKO Stadion · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Telstar vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Telstar and 2.50 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AZ Alkmaar win
73.3% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Telstar home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AZ Alkmaar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AZ Alkmaar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 11% / 16% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Telstar and 2.50 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–39.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–37.8%
Recent form
Telstar
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
AZ Alkmaar
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AZ Alkmaar win, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.