Telstar vs Cambuur Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Telstar and 2.05 for Cambuur, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Telstar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 2.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Telstar home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cambuur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Telstar win41%

Draw20%

Cambuur win39%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

2–27.3%
2–17.1%
1–26.9%
1–16.7%
3–25.2%

Recent form

Telstar

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)

Cambuur

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · Telstar 2-2 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
2025-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · Telstar 2-0 Cambuur (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-01-31T19:00:00.000Z · Telstar 1-2 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
2024-11-29T19:00:00.000Z · Telstar 2-2 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
2024-03-23T19:00:00.000Z · Telstar 0-1 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
2023-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · Telstar 2-3 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
2022-07-16T15:00:00.000Z · Telstar 1-2 Cambuur (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-07-16T15:00:00.000Z · Telstar 1-2 Cambuur (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Telstar 0-2 Cambuur (Friendlies Clubs)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.