Tenerife II vs Don Benito Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Tenerife II and 1.31 for Don Benito, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Tenerife II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Tenerife II win

46.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Don Benito away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tenerife II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Tenerife II and 1.31 for Don Benito, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Tenerife II win47%

Draw24%

Don Benito win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.0%
2–19.3%
1–08.4%
1–27.2%
2–07.1%

Recent form

Tenerife II

Don Benito

2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estepona · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanluqueño · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Antoniano · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tenerife II win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.