· Analysis updated 02:02 UTC
Tenerife II vs Mijas Las Lagunas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Tenerife II and 1.91 for Mijas Las Lagunas, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Mijas Las Lagunas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mijas Las Lagunas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mijas Las Lagunas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 36% / 22% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Tenerife II and 1.91 for Mijas Las Lagunas, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
Tenerife II
Mijas Las Lagunas
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamaraceite · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Antoniano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Lucena · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Puente Genil · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez Deportivo · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Real Betis II | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Sevilla Atletico | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Estepona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Puente Genil | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Sanluqueño | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Tenerife II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Xerez | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Atlético Central | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.