Heliodoro Rodríguez López · Referee A. Morilla · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Tenerife vs Almeria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Tenerife and 1.13 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Almeria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.6% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tenerife home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almeria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almeria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 30% / 30% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Tenerife and 1.13 for Almeria, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 59.3% vs market 47.3%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 59.3% | 1.69 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.35 | 69.9% | 70.6% | 1.42 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.25 | 40.0% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.0% | 30.2% | 3.31 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.9% | 69.9% | 1.43 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 60.1% | 59.7% | 1.68 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 3.00 | 30.0% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 40.7% | 2.46 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tenerife
- 2026-10-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cadiz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad II · 1-1 (D)
Almeria
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Eldense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 18 | Cadiz | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.