Heliodoro Rodríguez López · Referee D. Miranda · Analysis updated 06:14 UTC
Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Tenerife and 1.12 for Sporting Gijon, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Sporting Gijon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tenerife home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Gijon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Tenerife
- 2026-10-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cadiz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad II · 1-1 (D)
Sporting Gijon
- 2026-10-04T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Oviedo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Andorra · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Girona · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · Tenerife 0-1 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
- 2025-04-05T19:00:00.000Z · Tenerife 3-1 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
- 2024-09-22T12:00:00.000Z · Tenerife 1-1 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
- 2024-01-20T17:30:00.000Z · Tenerife 1-2 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
- 2023-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · Tenerife 1-2 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
- 2023-02-25T20:00:00.000Z · Tenerife 0-1 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
- 2022-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · Tenerife 1-1 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
- 2022-03-13T15:00:00.000Z · Tenerife 2-1 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
- 2021-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · Tenerife 0-0 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
- 2021-04-09T19:00:00.000Z · Tenerife 1-0 Sporting Gijon (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Eibar | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Granada CF | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Girona | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 7 | Mallorca | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Eldense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Celta de Vigo II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 15 | Cordoba | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Las Palmas | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 17 | Leganes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.