Mommsenstadion · Analysis updated 09:09 UTC
Tennis Borussia vs Croatia Berlin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Tennis Borussia and 0.84 for Croatia Berlin, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Tennis Borussia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tennis Borussia win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tennis Borussia home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Croatia Berlin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tennis Borussia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Tennis Borussia and 0.84 for Croatia Berlin, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.7%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
Tennis Borussia
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Optik Rathenow · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Siedenbollentin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lichtenberg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Anker Wismar · 1-0 (W)
Croatia Berlin
- 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makkabi · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Tennis Borussia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Schwerin · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BAK '07 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Klosterfelde · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Mahlsdorf | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Reinickendorfer Fuchse | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | BAK '07 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Hertha Zehlendorf | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Siedenbollentin | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Lichtenberg | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Hansa Rostock II | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Optik Rathenow | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Anker Wismar | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | Tennis Borussia | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Mecklenburg Schwerin | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | FC Lok Stendal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sparta Lichtenberg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Union Klosterfelde | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | Makkabi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Neustrelitz | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tennis Borussia win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.