· Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Tensung vs Thimphu City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.45 expected goals for Tensung and 2.25 for Thimphu City, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Thimphu City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thimphu City win
78.6% probability
Expected goals
0.45 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tensung home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thimphu City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–217.0%
- 0–115.1%
- 0–312.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–47.2%
Recent form
Tensung
- 2026-09-28T09:00:00.000Z · H vs RTC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Thimphu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Drukpa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bhutan U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tsirang · 1-3 (L)
Thimphu City
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Transport United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhutan U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ugyen Academy · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs RTC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-29T12:00:00.000Z · Tensung 1-7 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2026-07-15T10:00:00.000Z · Tensung 0-4 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2025-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · Tensung 0-5 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2025-06-29T10:00:00.000Z · Tensung 1-0 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2024-07-21T12:00:00.000Z · Tensung 1-2 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2024-05-13T10:00:00.000Z · Tensung 4-0 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2023-11-17T12:00:00.000Z · Tensung 2-4 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2023-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · Tensung 2-1 Thimphu City (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paro | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 49 |
| 2 | Thimphu City | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 40 |
| 3 | Thimphu | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 4 | Transport United | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | RTC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 28 |
| 6 | Drukpa | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Bhutan U19 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 20 |
| 8 | Tsirang | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -21 | 16 |
| 9 | Tensung | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -39 | 8 |
| 10 | Ugyen Academy | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | -46 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thimphu City win, at 78.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.