· Referee A. Rodriguez · Analysis updated 13:11 UTC
Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Tepatitlán and 1.33 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Tepatitlán the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tepatitlán win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tepatitlán home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Tepatitlán
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tlaxcala · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CA La Paz · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Correcaminos Uat · 1-3 (L)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monarcas · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapatío · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T01:00:00.000Z · A vs CDS Tampico Madero · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tepatitlán · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tlaxcala · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T01:00:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2026-04-04T02:00:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 2-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2025-10-25T01:00:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 1-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2025-04-12T01:00:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 4-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2024-10-27T22:00:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 2-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2024-03-27T03:05:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-10-26T01:05:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 3-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-02-09T03:05:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 3-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2022-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 1-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2022-02-01T23:00:00.000Z · Tepatitlán 1-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga de Expansión MX)
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Piratas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Durango | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | Cancún | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorados | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Correcaminos Uat | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -27 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tepatitlán win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.