· Referee L. A. Garcia Olvera · Analysis updated 09:51 UTC
Tepatitlán vs Cancún Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Tepatitlán and 1.85 for Cancún, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Cancún the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cancún win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tepatitlán home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cancún away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cancún to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 20% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Tepatitlán and 1.85 for Cancún, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.7%
- 1–110.7%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 46.7% vs market 42.1%, edge +4.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.1% | 46.7% | 2.14 | +4.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.25 | 42.1% | 42.7% | 2.34 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 4.50 | 20.0% | 20.1% | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.5% | 22.6% | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.57 | 57.4% | 57.3% | 1.75 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.6% | 77.4% | 1.29 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 80.3% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.9% | 53.3% | 1.88 | -4.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tepatitlán
- 2026-10-24T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cancún · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Piratas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapatío · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Monarcas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CDS Tampico Madero · 3-1 (W)
Cancún
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Venados FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Zacatecas · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapatío · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tlaxcala · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 27 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Piratas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Cancún | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Durango | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 19 |
| 9 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Correcaminos Uat | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -31 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cancún win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.