· Referee F. Cruz Garatachea · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Tepatitlán vs Durango Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Tepatitlán and 1.90 for Durango, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Durango the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Durango win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tepatitlán home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Durango away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Durango to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 14% / 21% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Tepatitlán and 1.90 for Durango, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 0–212.9%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–38.2%
Recent form
Tepatitlán
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tlaxcala · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CA La Paz · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Correcaminos Uat · 1-3 (L)
Durango
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorados · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tlaxcala · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Correcaminos Uat · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Piratas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Durango | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | Cancún | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorados | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Correcaminos Uat | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -27 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Durango win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.