· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Teramo vs Vigor Senigallia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Teramo and 1.08 for Vigor Senigallia, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Teramo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Teramo win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Teramo home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vigor Senigallia away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–16.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.0% | 76.6% | 1.31 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 52.3% | 53.5% | 1.87 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.2% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.08 | 45.4% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | 54.6% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 46.9% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 78.2% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.4% | 23.4% | 4.27 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Teramo
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vigor Senigallia · 6-4 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Aquila · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Giulianova · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Angelana · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Notaresco · 2-2 (D)
Vigor Senigallia
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Teramo · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fossombrone · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Termoli Calcio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanciano FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Giulianova · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Teramo 6-4 Vigor Senigallia (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2026-02-01T13:30:00.000Z · Teramo 3-1 Vigor Senigallia (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2025-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · Teramo 3-1 Vigor Senigallia (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2025-02-23T14:00:00.000Z · Teramo 2-0 Vigor Senigallia (Serie D - Girone F)
- 2024-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · Teramo 1-0 Vigor Senigallia (Serie D - Girone F)
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Teramo | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Notaresco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Ancona | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Fossombrone | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Montecchio Gallo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Giulianova | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Santegidiese | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Pietralunga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Maceratese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Recanatese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Angelana | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Sporting Trestina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Teramo win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.