Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin Stadium · Referee H. Amir · Analysis updated 12:45 UTC
Terengganu vs Penang Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Terengganu and 1.07 for Penang, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Terengganu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Terengganu home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Penang away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Terengganu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Terengganu and 1.07 for Penang, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Terengganu
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs DPMM FC Brunei · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Imigresen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T12:15:00.000Z · A vs DPMM FC Brunei · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Penang · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Selangor · 0-3 (L)
Penang
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Selangor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Kelantan Red Warrior FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Melaka · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
| 2 | Selangor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sabah FA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melaka | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 6 |
| 8 | Negeri Sembilan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Terengganu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Imigresen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Penang | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.