Stadio Libero Liberati · Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Ternana W vs Como 1907 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ternana W and 2.01 for Como 1907 W, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Como 1907 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Como 1907 W win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ternana W home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como 1907 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 26% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Ternana W and 2.01 for Como 1907 W, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–26.8%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Ternana W
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Parma W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Como W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 0-2 (L)
Como 1907 W
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus W · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Milano W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Inter Milano W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Como 1907 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | AC Milan W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Ternana W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Como W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Napoli W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Fiorentina W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Lazio W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Parma W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Sassuolo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Como 1907 W win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.