Stadio Libero Liberati · Referee G. Guitaldi · Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Ternana W vs Fiorentina W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ternana W and 1.22 for Fiorentina W, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Ternana W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ternana W home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fiorentina W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ternana W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Ternana W and 1.22 for Fiorentina W, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–08.3%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Ternana W
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Parma W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Como W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 0-2 (L)
Fiorentina W
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa W · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · Ternana W 1-3 Fiorentina W (Serie A Cup Women)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Ternana W 2-2 Fiorentina W (Serie A Women)
- 2025-12-07T14:00:00.000Z · Ternana W 0-1 Fiorentina W (Serie A Women)
Serie A Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Inter Milano W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Como 1907 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | AC Milan W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Ternana W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Como W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Napoli W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Fiorentina W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Lazio W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Parma W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Sassuolo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.