Estadio Municipal João Ronaldo · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Terra e Mar vs Tianguá Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Terra e Mar and 1.38 for Tianguá, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Tianguá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tianguá win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Terra e Mar home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tianguá away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tianguá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Terra e Mar and 1.38 for Tianguá, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–28.8%
Recent form
Terra e Mar
- 2024-08-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Quixada · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Quixada · 0-5 (L)
- 2024-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Aliança · 4-1 (W)
- 2024-07-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tianguá · 2-4 (L)
- 2024-07-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Itarema · 2-1 (W)
Tianguá
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vila Real · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Acopiara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Calouros do Ar · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Palmacia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacatuba · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Acopiara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Esporte Limoeiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Pacatuba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calouros do Ar | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tianguá | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Palmacia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tianguá win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.