· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Terrassa vs UD Logroñés II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Terrassa and 0.74 for UD Logroñés II, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives Terrassa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.2% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Terrassa home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
UD Logroñés II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Terrassa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 32% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Terrassa and 0.74 for UD Logroñés II, a combined 1.82 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 0–016.2%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–09.5%
Recent form
Terrassa
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Sestao River · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Ebro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnedo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Binéfar · 4-0 (W)
UD Logroñés II
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Barbastro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olot · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Manresa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Calamocha · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona B · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Ebro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Espanyol II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Olot | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Manresa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Reddis | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Terrassa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | UD Logroñés II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Girona II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Utebo | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Barbastro | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Náxara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -12 | 3 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.