· Analysis updated 11:51 UTC
Teungueth vs Colombe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Teungueth and 0.77 for Colombe, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Teungueth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.4% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Teungueth home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Colombe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 34% / 35% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Teungueth and 0.77 for Colombe, a combined 1.60 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.2%
- 1–016.8%
- 0–115.5%
- 1–112.9%
- 2–07.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.57 (model 69.7% vs market 59.4%, edge +10.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.57 | 59.4% | 69.7% | 1.43 | +10.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 29.8% | 30.6% | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.6% | 69.4% | 1.44 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.44 | 64.8% | 64.7% | 1.55 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 34.4% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.50 | 35.8% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 66.6% | 65.9% | 1.52 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.30 | 40.6% | 30.3% | 3.30 | -10.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Teungueth
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Canchungo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Canchungo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Guédiawaye · 1-0 (W)
Colombe
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Teungueth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Teungueth · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Malien Bamako · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Malien Bamako · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fauve Azur Elite · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · Teungueth 0-1 Colombe (CAF Champions League)
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · Teungueth 0-2 Colombe (CAF Champions League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.