Stadiumi Niko Dovana · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Teuta Durrës and 0.66 for AF Elbasani, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Teuta Durrës the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Teuta Durrës win
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Teuta Durrës home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AF Elbasani away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 2–014.0%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
Teuta Durrës
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Kukesi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vora · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 3-1 (W)
AF Elbasani
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 1-2 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2026-02-06T15:30:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 1-2 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-12-03T15:30:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-0 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-0 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-03-11T15:30:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-0 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-01-15T16:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-2 AF Elbasani (Cup)
- 2025-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 1-3 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2024-10-31T16:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-0 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2024-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-3 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 6 | AF Elbasani | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Laci | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Partizani | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Teuta Durrës win, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.