Stadiumi Niko Dovana · Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Teuta Durrës vs Laci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Teuta Durrës and 0.58 for Laci, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives Teuta Durrës the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Teuta Durrës win
72.9% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Teuta Durrës home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Laci away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Teuta Durrës to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 18% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Teuta Durrës and 0.58 for Laci, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.2%
- 1–014.5%
- 3–010.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Teuta Durrës
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Kukesi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vora · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 3-1 (W)
Laci
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Këlcyra · 8-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 6 | AF Elbasani | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Laci | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Partizani | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Teuta Durrës win, at 72.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.