Stadiumi Niko Dovana · Analysis updated 06:23 UTC
Teuta Durrës vs Partizani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Teuta Durrës and 1.08 for Partizani, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Teuta Durrës the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Teuta Durrës win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Teuta Durrës home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Partizani away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Teuta Durrës
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AF Elbasani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Kukesi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-0 (W)
Partizani
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tirana · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Drenica Skënderaj · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-0 Partizani (Superliga)
- 2026-03-21T17:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 2-2 Partizani (Superliga)
- 2026-01-19T16:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 1-2 Partizani (Superliga)
- 2025-11-09T16:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 2-3 Partizani (Superliga)
- 2025-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-0 Partizani (Superliga)
- 2025-03-16T17:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-0 Partizani (Superliga)
- 2025-01-19T15:30:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-2 Partizani (Superliga)
- 2024-11-04T17:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 1-1 Partizani (Superliga)
- 2024-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 0-2 Partizani (Superliga)
- 2024-03-16T16:00:00.000Z · Teuta Durrës 1-0 Partizani (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Teuta Durrës win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.