· Analysis updated 11:59 UTC
Thai Nguyen vs Binh Dinh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Thai Nguyen and 1.27 for Binh Dinh, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Thai Nguyen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thai Nguyen win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Binh Dinh away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thai Nguyen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Thai Nguyen and 1.27 for Binh Dinh, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–17.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Thai Nguyen
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bóng đá Huế · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dong Thap · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Binh Dinh · 2-1 (W)
Binh Dinh
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Long An · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Văn Hiến · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Than Quang Ninh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hồ Chí Minh II · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thai Nguyen | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Hung Yen | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 10 |
| 3 | Sanna Khanh Hoa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Binh Duong | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Pho Hien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Văn Hiến | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Dong Thap | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Than Quang Ninh | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Binh Dinh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Ho Chi Minh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Lam Dong | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Bóng đá Huế | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 13 | Long An | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thai Nguyen win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.