King Abdullah Sports City Hall Stadium · Referee C. Leow · Analysis updated 12:41 UTC
Thailand U17 vs Saudi Arabia U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Thailand U17 and 1.45 for Saudi Arabia U17, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Thailand U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thailand U17 win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thailand U17 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saudi Arabia U17 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thailand U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Thailand U17 and 1.45 for Saudi Arabia U17, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Thailand U17
- 2026-05-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Myanmar U17 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Saudi Arabia U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Tajikistan U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-30T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kuwait U17 · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-11-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Turkmenistan U17 · 2-3 (L)
Saudi Arabia U17
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Turkey U17 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs China PR U17 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tajikistan U17 · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Thailand U17 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Myanmar U17 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · Thailand U17 0-2 Saudi Arabia U17 (AFC U17 Asian Cup)
- 2025-04-06T17:15:00.000Z · Thailand U17 1-3 Saudi Arabia U17 (AFC U17 Asian Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thailand U17 win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.