North Sumatra Stadium · Analysis updated 22:32 UTC
Thailand U19 vs Australia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Thailand U19 and 2.75 for Australia U19, a combined total of 5.68. That distribution gives Thailand U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.4% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thailand U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thailand U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 17% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Thailand U19 and 2.75 for Australia U19, a combined 5.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 92% and both teams to score at 88%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–25.5%
- 3–25.4%
- 2–35.1%
- 3–35.0%
- 2–14.0%
Recent form
Thailand U19
- 2026-06-13T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Australia U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambodia U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaysia U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei U19 · 9-0 (W)
Australia U19
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
ASEAN Championship U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indonesia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Vietnam U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Myanmar U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 4 | Timor-Leste U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
| 1 | Thailand U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | Malaysia U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Singapore U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Brunei U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -17 | 0 |
| 1 | Australia U19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 |
| 2 | Cambodia U19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Philippines U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.