Stadion Madya Atletik Sumatera Utara · Analysis updated 05:44 UTC
Thailand U19 vs Malaysia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.02 expected goals for Thailand U19 and 1.71 for Malaysia U19, a combined total of 4.72. That distribution gives Thailand U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thailand U19 win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
3.02 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thailand U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thailand U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 16% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.02 goals for Thailand U19 and 1.71 for Malaysia U19, a combined 4.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 78%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.9%
- 2–16.9%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–25.9%
- 4–15.2%
Recent form
Thailand U19
- 2026-06-13T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Australia U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambodia U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaysia U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei U19 · 9-0 (W)
Malaysia U19
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
ASEAN Championship U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indonesia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Vietnam U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Myanmar U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 4 | Timor-Leste U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
| 1 | Thailand U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | Malaysia U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Singapore U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Brunei U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -17 | 0 |
| 1 | Australia U19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 |
| 2 | Cambodia U19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Philippines U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thailand U19 win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.