Rajamangala Stadium · Referee Y. Ohashi · Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Thailand vs Myanmar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Thailand and 1.47 for Myanmar, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Thailand the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thailand win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thailand home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Myanmar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thailand to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Thailand and 1.47 for Myanmar, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Thailand
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Myanmar · 2-0 (W)
Myanmar
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Timor-Leste · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Laos · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-07-28T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Philippines · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
ASEAN Championship table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thailand win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.