Jalak Harupat Soreang Stadium · Referee Benjamin Abraham · Analysis updated 08:10 UTC
Thailand vs Vietnam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Thailand and 1.01 for Vietnam, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Thailand the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thailand home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vietnam away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thailand to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Thailand and 1.01 for Vietnam, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 54.8% vs market 48.0%, edge +6.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 48.0% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +6.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.7% | 71.5% | 1.40 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 29.7% | 30.0% | 3.33 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 69.7% | 70.0% | 1.43 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 41.5% | 41.5% | 2.41 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.8% | 28.5% | 3.51 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.7% | 58.5% | 1.71 | -2.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 52.0% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -6.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Thailand
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Myanmar · 2-0 (W)
Vietnam
- 2026-10-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakistan · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FIFA Asean Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indonesia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 2 | Malaysia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 3 | Singapore | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 4 | Bangladesh | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 0 |
| 1 | Thailand | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Vietnam | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Philippines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Pakistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Hong Kong | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Laos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 3 | Brunei | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Cambodia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Myanmar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Timor-Leste | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.