Thammasat Stadium · Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
Thailand W vs Nepal W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Thailand W and 1.76 for Nepal W, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Nepal W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thailand W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nepal W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nepal W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Thailand W and 1.76 for Nepal W, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Thailand W
- 2026-09-21T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Chinese Taipei W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Japan W · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-06-09T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Uzbekistan W · 1-0 (W)
Nepal W
- 2025-12-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Chinese Taipei W · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia W · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-10-29T11:15:00.000Z · A vs India W · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs India W · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Iran W · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.