· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Thame United vs Eastbourne Borough Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Thame United and 2.88 for Eastbourne Borough, a combined total of 4.88. That distribution gives Eastbourne Borough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eastbourne Borough win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thame United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eastbourne Borough away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eastbourne Borough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 26% / 17% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Thame United and 2.88 for Eastbourne Borough, a combined 4.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.3%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–36.0%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–14.4%
Recent form
Thame United
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Exmouth · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exmouth · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Reading City · 3-2 (W)
Eastbourne Borough
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Three Bridges · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salisbury · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Welling United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Carshalton Athletic · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eastbourne Borough win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.