· Analysis updated 07:51 UTC
Than Quang Ninh vs Ho Chi Minh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Than Quang Ninh and 1.18 for Ho Chi Minh, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Ho Chi Minh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.7% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Than Quang Ninh home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ho Chi Minh away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Than Quang Ninh
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hai Phong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hung Yen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hồ Chí Minh II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs PVF-CAND · 3-1 (W)
Ho Chi Minh
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Văn Hiến · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Binh Dinh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Lam Dong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bắc Ninh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 3-1 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 2)
- 2025-11-08T09:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 0-1 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 2)
- 2021-03-14T11:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 2-0 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2020-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 2-1 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2020-07-11T11:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 0-3 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2019-08-17T12:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 1-3 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2019-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 1-2 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2018-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 1-2 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2018-05-25T11:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 1-0 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2017-11-19T10:00:00.000Z · Than Quang Ninh 4-2 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
V.League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thai Nguyen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Hung Yen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 |
| 3 | Sanna Khanh Hoa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Binh Duong | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Dong Thap | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Than Quang Ninh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Pho Hien | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Văn Hiến | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Lam Dong | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Ho Chi Minh | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Long An | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Binh Dinh | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Bóng đá Huế | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 14 | Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.