Thaon vs Mulhouse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Thaon and 1.41 for Mulhouse, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Thaon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Thaon win

56.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.26 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mulhouse away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thaon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for Thaon and 1.41 for Mulhouse, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 68%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Thaon win57%

Draw20%

Mulhouse win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–19.2%
1–18.1%
3–16.9%
2–06.5%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Thaon

Mulhouse

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sochaux II · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Troyes II · 0-5 (L)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Belfort · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Thaon · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chalon-sur-Saône · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group F table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Troyes II	26	15	6	5	22	51
2	Thonon Évian	26	13	7	6	12	46
3	Chalon	26	12	9	5	12	45
4	Racing Besançon	26	11	10	5	14	43
5	Jura Dolois	26	12	6	8	6	42
6	Torcy	26	10	7	9	2	37
7	Pontarlier	26	9	9	8	7	36
8	Ivry	26	9	8	9	-3	35
9	Thaon	26	9	5	12	2	32
10	Belfort	26	7	9	10	3	30
11	Mulhouse	26	8	6	12	-11	30
12	Strasbourg II	26	7	7	12	-20	28
13	Sochaux II	26	7	6	13	-7	27
14	Besançon	26	2	7	17	-39	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Thaon win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.