· Analysis updated 02:33 UTC
The Cove vs Fulham United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for The Cove and 1.23 for Fulham United, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Fulham United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
The Cove home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fulham United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fulham United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 34% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for The Cove and 1.23 for Fulham United, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
The Cove
- 2026-08-15T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Fulham United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Raiders · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cumberland United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide Cobras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T05:30:00.000Z · A vs South Adelaide Panthers · 2-2 (D)
Fulham United
- 2026-08-22T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide Blue Eagles · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T07:30:00.000Z · A vs The Cove · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide Blue Eagles · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Eastern United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Raiders · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
South Australia State League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Raiders | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 47 |
| 2 | Modbury Jets | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 22 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 43 |
| 4 | Fulham United | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 37 |
| 5 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Adelaide Victory | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 36 |
| 7 | Cumberland United | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 8 | The Cove | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -7 | 26 |
| 9 | Eastern United | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -19 | 22 |
| 10 | Adelaide Cobras | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -23 | 20 |
| 11 | Salisbury United | 22 | 5 | 2 | 15 | -20 | 17 |
| 12 | South Adelaide Panthers | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -36 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.