Park Hall · Referee R. Kenny · Analysis updated 13:57 UTC
The New Saints vs Haverfordwest County AFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.22 expected goals for The New Saints and 0.42 for Haverfordwest County AFC, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives The New Saints the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
The New Saints win
89.9% probability
Expected goals
3.22 – 0.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
The New Saints home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Haverfordwest County AFC away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates The New Saints to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 90% / 8% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.22 goals for The New Saints and 0.42 for Haverfordwest County AFC, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
10%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–014.5%
- 2–013.5%
- 4–011.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 5–07.6%
Recent form
The New Saints
- 2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ammanford AFC · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Holywell · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Trefelin · 3-1 (W)
Haverfordwest County AFC
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff Corinthians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Caernarfon Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Colwyn Bay · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 40 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -31 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is The New Saints win, at 89.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.