Park Hall · Referee R. Kenny · Analysis updated 23:51 UTC
The New Saints vs Llandudno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.12 expected goals for The New Saints and 0.88 for Llandudno, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives The New Saints the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
The New Saints win
81.1% probability
Expected goals
3.12 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
The New Saints home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Llandudno away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.3%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–17.8%
- 4–07.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.95 (model 55.7% vs market 47.3%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 92.2% | 92.7% | 1.08 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 13.00 | 7.2% | 7.3% | 13.70 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.15 | 81.2% | 81.1% | 1.23 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 8.00 | 11.7% | 11.6% | 8.62 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 5.00 | 19.0% | 18.9% | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.07 | 88.8% | 88.4% | 1.13 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.75 | 52.7% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
The New Saints
- 2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ammanford AFC · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Holywell · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Trefelin · 3-1 (W)
Llandudno
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff MET · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambrian & Clydach · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs The New Saints · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Caernarfon Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barry Town · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · The New Saints 2-1 Llandudno (Premier League)
- 2025-12-06T14:30:00.000Z · The New Saints 2-1 Llandudno (League Cup)
- 2019-03-02T14:30:00.000Z · The New Saints 8-1 Llandudno (Welsh Cup)
- 2018-12-22T14:30:00.000Z · The New Saints 4-0 Llandudno (Premier League)
- 2018-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · The New Saints 6-1 Llandudno (Premier League)
- 2017-11-17T19:45:00.000Z · The New Saints 1-0 Llandudno (Premier League)
- 2017-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · The New Saints 1-0 Llandudno (Premier League)
- 2016-10-15T16:15:00.000Z · The New Saints 5-0 Llandudno (Premier League)
- 2016-08-20T16:15:00.000Z · The New Saints 5-0 Llandudno (Premier League)
- 2016-04-23T16:15:00.000Z · The New Saints 5-1 Llandudno (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 40 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -31 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is The New Saints win, at 81.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.